Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews Tuesday’s quarter-final action at the French Open in Paris.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1.5pts Qinwen Zheng to serve the most aces and most double faults v Aryna Sabalenka at 20/23 (bet365)
1pt Lorenzo Musetti to beat s Tiafoe and both players to win a set at 7/5 (William Hill)
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Tommy Paul 3-1 at 14/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Aryna Sabalenka v Qinwen Zheng (1000 BST)
Top seed Sabalenka’s route to the title began to climb uphill in the last round but she ed her Amanda Anisimova test well, claiming a 7-5 6-3 win.
The next hurdle is also a tricky one though with Zheng the reigning Olympic champion, having won the gold medal on Court Philippe Chatrier last summer.
Sabalenka had enjoyed her matches with the Chinese, winning the first six, five of them in straight sets.
However, their last meeting, just a few weeks ago in Rome, was their first on clay and Zheng held serve throughout a 6-4 6-3 victory.
That may well have planted a seed of doubt in Sabalenka’s head.
Clay is Zheng’s favourite surface, whereas Sabalenka would prefer to be away on the hardcourts. It won’t be so easy for the world number one to pummel winners here and I would not discount Zheng at all at close to 5/2.
However, the best bet here may be a data-driven approach.
We’re starting to get more specials markets now we’re at the business end of the tournament and looking into the serve stats produces a decent price here.
In their seven previous meetings, six have seen Zheng serve the most aces.
And when it comes to double faults, Zheng has delivered more than her opponent in five (with one tie). Also, the current tournament’s double-fault stats show that Zheng is serving 0.45 per game – almost twice the rate of Sabalenka (0.25).
Doubling the two stat bets up – Zheng to serve most aces and most double faults – gets us around even money. That looks a good use of the Bet Builder tools around.
Elina Svitolina v Iga Swiatek (to follow match 1)
Defending champion Swiatek sailed pretty close to the wind in the last round but came through against Elena Rybakina, winning 7-5 in the third.
I believe that’s exactly what the doctor ordered for a player who struggled in the warm-up events – mentally, winning that will have been huge.
Svitolina will provide a different test. She has less power than Rybakina but also a better defence and the Ukrainian will doubtless look to test Swiatek with her ability to get balls back and counter-punch when possible.
I just question how often she’ll be able to turn the rallies around, though, if Swiatek is able to reproduce her level of Sunday.
The Pole will look to get on the front foot early and while she won’t find it easy to blast her way through Svitolina, I suspect she’ll be able to force enough errors to get her through.
Swiatek leads the head-to-head 3-1. One of those matches came on clay – in Rome four years ago when she won 6-2 7-5.
Indeed, all three of her wins have come via the 2-0 set scoreline and that looks the most likely outcome here – you can get 10/11 about that occurrence.
Lorenzo Musetti v s Tiafoe (to follow match 2)
Our outright pick Musetti produced a mature performance to beat Holger Rune in four sets on Sunday night and he’s looked pretty good thus far, continuing an excellent claycourt season.
However, Tiafoe’s game has also been in fine working order and he arrives at the quarter-final stage having yet to drop a set.
I certainly didn’t see that coming and now I’m a little concerned about what happens here.
The American has only lost serve four times in the first four rounds, winning 76% of points behind his first serve and a very impressive 67% behind his second serve. For the record, Musetti’s equivalent stats are 70-57.
He’s also got a decent record against the Italian, winning four of seven career meetings (it’s 3-2 at tour level), most of which have been tight affairs – five have gone to a deciding set.
However, I remain convinced that Musetti is the better claycourt player – he’s 2-1 up in their H2H on this surface – and he has to be considered the most likely winner.
Given Tiafoe’s form and history against Musetti, I think the best betting approach here is to back the Italian to win with both players winning a set.
That’s a 7/5 chance.
Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz (not before 1915 BST)
Alcaraz is now odds-on for the title with several bookmakers but that’s not a bet I’d have any interest in right now.
It’s hard to be too critical of the defending champion but the fact is he’s lost a set in each of his last three matches – to Ben Shelton, Damir Dzumhur and Fabian Marozsan.
He does have that trait of losing focus for periods of a match and doesn’t always put his foot on the throat of an opponent. You do wonder what happens when the level of opposition rises.
Whether it does here is open to question, although Paul is definitely the highest-ranked player Alcaraz has faced so far.
Importantly, he’s one who has had the tools to trouble the Spaniard in the past.
Two of six matches have been won by the American, albeit both took place on a hardcourt. Others have been close – Paul has won a set in four of the six – and even their only claycourt clash was fairly tight, Alcaraz winning 6-3 7-6 at last summer’s Olympics here at Roland Garros.
Paul has spoken about the need to go for your shots when facing Alcaraz – essentially fight fire with fire – and he’s managed to do it at times.
It’s a tactic that’s difficult to carry out over a long period of time though and the best-of-five format in operation at this tournament works against his chance of an upset.
Still, I believe he is more than capable of adding his name to the list of players to have won a set off Alcaraz, especially if that positive approach can be carried out during an Alcaraz lull.
Another four-set win for Alcaraz looks a tempting price here at 14/5.
Posted at 1730 BST on 02/06/25
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