Our team of experts answer some of the key questions following the six-day confirmations for Wednesday's racing at Royal Ascot.
Are you convinced Illinois is the heir apparent to Kyprios ahead of the Gold Cup on Thursday?
David Ord: Not entirely - but there's every chance too. How's that for a cop-out? A St Leger runner-up and Queen's Vase and Prix Chaudenay winner at three, he's clearly on the right path and was better than ever when winning the Ormonde at Chester on his return. That performance suggested connections might go pot-hunting and hope to strike lucky in a mile-and-a-half Group One somewhere. Now in the absence of Kyprios he's stepping up to two-and-a-half. Two miles won't be an issue but we won't know until they turned for home and take dead aim at the finishing post whether the petrol tank is reading empty over this marathon trip. I'm not sure I'd be taking 13/8 to find out.
Matt Brocklebank: I’m not sure I’d go quite that far but that’s not to say he won’t win. Illinois was deeply impressive at Chester last month and looks to have the staying scene at his mercy if seeing out this extended trip. There’s very little to suggest he won’t stay although Trawlerman and Candelari are high-class performances in their own right and the bottom line is I’m struggling to see a decent betting angle into the big race on day three.
Tony McFadden: He certainly boasts some eye-catching form from last season having chased home Sosie in the Grand Prix de Paris, Los Angeles in the Great Voltigeur and Jan Brueghel in the St Leger - three horses who have won Group 1s this season. Los Angeles and Jan Brueghel, in particular, have shown improved form this season and Illinois also looked better than ever when defying a penalty on his return in the Ormonde Stakes. However, others in the Gold Cup have achieved a similar or even higher level of form on Timeform's ratings, and Illinois is priced as if further improvement is a given.
Who rates the main danger to Aidan O’Brien’s charge?
David Ord: Well Jan Brueghel won't be running unless something goes amiss with Illinois. Candelari is progressive but hasn't previously raced on the sort of surface he'll face next week so Trawlerman has to be the percentage call. Second to Kyprios in the race last season, he was very goood on his return in the Henry II and if operating at that sort of level again on Thursday, sets a fairly high bar for the rest - even Illinois.
Matt Brocklebank: Last year’s runner-up Trawlerman is rock solid on the back of his Sandown success and he’s got experience of the track but I’m drawn to the French runner Candelari for Francis Graffard, who is bringing a very strong team to the party this summer. Candelari could be running on the quickest ground he’s ever encountered if the forecast is right but he’s a very progressive horse who doesn’t know how to run a bad race. The Gold Cup is sure to expose any frailties but I suspect he’s going to give Illinois and Trawlerman a proper race.
Tony McFadden: Trawlerman heads Timeform's ratings based on a couple of pieces of form and looks to hold rock-solid claims. Kyprios may not have been at his best when runner-up in the 2023 Long Distance Cup having endured an injury-hit campaign, but he was still 13 lengths clear of the third and it probably still took a very smart effort from Trawlerman to beat him. Trawlerman was unable to confirm the form against a better version of Kyprios in last year's Gold Cup, but he ran right up to his best in second and went down fighting. He comfortably made all in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown recently and that should have teed him up perfectly for this assignment.
Quick turnaround from Epsom means Oaks form isn't significantly represented in the Ribblesdale. Who catches your eye?
David Ord: I've a lot of time for both Musidora second Serenity Prayer and Life Is Beautiful who chased home Falakeyah in the Pretty Polly. However Paddy Twomey isn't one for tilting at windmills and the eye is drawn to Catalina Delcarpio. A 400,000 daughter of Lope De Vega, she didn't see the racecourse at two but was an an impressive winner of a Leopardstown maiden on debut in the spring and came forward significantly to finish second in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan next time. She looked an unlucky loser there, caught in a pocket when subsequent Oaks fourth Wemightakedlongway went for home and came clear of the remainder in closing her down in second. She looks ready for a mile-and-a-half and we're some way from her ceiling at the moment.
Matt Brocklebank: It’s hard to be dogmatic as we have some interesting and unexposed fillies in here who could be sitting on any amount of improvement – yes, I’m looking at you Serenity Prayer, Catalina Delcarpio and Understudy. But experience is rarely a bad thing in the Ribblesdale and Island Hopping ran three times at two (including behind Whirl at the Curragh) and has had a couple of spring outings when some of the Ballydoyle horses were badly needing a run. She still looked a bit rusty when overhauled late at Naas last time but has had 40 days since then to reach full fitness. She’s bred to be top-class and could improve plenty for the step up to a mile and a half.
Tony McFadden: Catalina Delcarpio created a huge impression on her debut at Leopardstown in April, showing a sparkling turn of foot to draw four and a half lengths clear in a race run at just a steady gallop, and she also shaped well when runner-up behind subsequent Oaks fourth Wemightakedlongway in a Group 3 at Navan. Catalina Delcarpio couldn't land a blow on the well-ridden front runner, but she kept on nicely to prove clear best of the rest, and she may well have gone close had she not been caught in a pocket when the pace was lifting. She's still an exciting prospect and can progress again.
One more horse on your Ascot Thursday radar please?
David Ord: The Britannia will be as competitive as ever but John Gosden has a fine record in the race and the Clarehaven team have a likely contender this time around in Fifth Column. The son of Kingman has won both starts this term, a maiden at Kempton and then on handicap debut at Sandown in April. On that occasion he impressed with how he travelled into the race having been keen early, before running on well to beat Seraph Gabriel by three-quarters-of-a-length. You'd imagine June 19th went on the calendar the moment he crossed the line, the strong pace and plenty of cover available will both suit and he's the sort to stay ahead of the handicapper for a little while.
Matt Brocklebank: I fancy Old Is Gold to win the Windsor Castle and Naval Light shaped with abundant potential behind him on debut at Beverley (replay below). Karl Burke's horse is also in the Coventry but it's looking like Thursday's Norfolk Stakes is the target and the stiff finish over five furlongs looks like being right up his street. The Wathnan two-year-old team for Ascot looks stronger than ever this year and this son of Havana Grey can be considered among the most promising of the lot and it's clear his trainer has a very high opinion of him.
Tony McFadden: A high draw tends to be an advantage in big fields over a mile and a half at Ascot, so it's difficult to take a strong view on the King George V Stakes at this stage. But if Merchant gets a favourable draw he'll be high on the shortlist as he brings a progressive profile to the table and appeals as one who might be better than a handicapper in time. He was a beaten favourite on his return over a mile and a quarter at Newmarket last month, but he seemed to relish the step up to a mile and a half at York where he ran out a dominant winner of a race that tends to be strong and has already started to work out well.
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