Ben Coley's golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship final-round two-ball tips

Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS round four

3pts Bud Cauley to win The PLAYERS Championship at 11/2 (Sky Bet)

2pts Corey Conners to win The PLAYERS Championship at 14/1 (General)

1pt treble Lowry, SW Kim and Vegas to win their three-balls at 10/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Chaos reigned towards the end of Saturday's third round at Sawgrass, summed up best by Will Zalatoris dropping nine shots in just five holes. He wasn't the only high-profile casualty. Four players failed to break 80, halfway leader Min Woo Lee waited until the final hole for a birdie in his 78, Tommy Fleetwood fell from the fringes to obscurity, so did Collin Morikawa, and Lucas Glover made two doubles and an eagle from hole 15.

This was always possible once we'd seen the weather forecast and there's more wind today, such that organisers have brought forward tee-times. Presumably they worry about suspensions due to balls moving on greens, with gusts expected to reach 30mph, because otherwise there's only a drop of rain late in the day and nothing in the way of thunderstorms.

Running a tournament like this when the wind blows is a thankless task and someone will always think you've made the wrong decision. Certainly, had tee-times remained as scheduled and the final round had to be delayed into Monday, PGA Tour officials would've been blamed for a lack of foresight. But it is unquestionably a shame, and not just because it denies us an evening in front of the TV. Yesterday, the gap between the first and last groups was six hours, today it's two. Danny Walker took advantage to vault into the top 10, but that will be harder now.

For leader JJ Spaun it's very good news. Not only will this be more of a level playing field, but he won't have to fill his day waiting for the biggest round of his life. Spaun is a quality tee-to-green operator who arrived with his game in good shape, but while he impressed to win the Texas Open under similarly tricky conditions in 2022, I keep thinking about his back nine in the Sony Open in January. Suddenly, with the winning line in sight, he found things very difficult, eventually missing the play-off by one.

His closing par save at the 18th felt big and he could hardly have asked for a better leaderboard, even if Rory McIlroy's birdie at the same hole moved him one closer. Nevertheless, there's the leaderboard, and there's the situation. This is The PLAYERS Championship and, on a windy Sunday at a golf course like Sawgrass, taking 2/1 feels less leap of faith, more act of folly.

BUD CAULEY, once a standout amateur destined for greatness but since blighted by a series of injuries and accidents, is almost three-times the price despite a one-shot deficit and while it might be asking for too much, he is the value call at this stage.

Cauley only got into the field after Lee Hodges withdrew and is currently playing on conditional status, which in effect means he could get his full PGA Tour playing rights back today if things go well. He could win his first title, too, and get into the Masters field for the first time, so on the one hand I don't think anyone would be surprised were it all to prove too much on what is his 35th birthday.

On the other, this is a player who has come back from almost four years out and, before all that, was involved in a life-threatening car accident in 2018. He broke a leg and five ribs and collapsed a lung, injuries which eventually resulted in that long break before he finally returned to professional golf little more than a year ago.

Having come back from all that, maybe this won't feel as big as it might have and Cauley was making all the right noises on Saturday night, saying: "I thought the car accident was life altering, and then we had a couple kids and that was really life altering.

"It makes you appreciate things a lot more, and yeah, as far as even my golf goes, it does put that in perspective. When I do have bad days, it's not the end of the world. Just come out and try again tomorrow."

Cauley used to live in Ponte Vedra and practice at Sawgrass and while he jokes that he'd have gone home had the wind blown like it's set to this afternoon, he's seen this course in all kinds of conditions and knows what to expect. If his short-game holds up this supreme ball-striker, longtime friends with former winner Justin Thomas, might just do it.

With two shots back to the rest I don't mind taking that chance at 5/1 and bigger.

Lucas Glover is a vastly experienced major champion and is respected along with McIlroy, but the latter looks short enough in the betting. There's no question that wind and a firming Sawgrass combine to negate some of McIlroy's skill advantage and though his closing birdie was all class, for the second week running his driving has been well short of the expected standards.

We're not totally out of it with Patrick Cantlay but I do wonder if things are nicely set up for COREY CONNERS to make a run from the same group and score as McIlroy, but at twice the price.

Another Texas Open winner, twice in his case, Conners generally looks a bit shaky under the gun but he was right there in the mix last Sunday, for the first time this year, and it might have him primed to do a bit better from this poacher's position.

He's driven the ball better than anyone this week and after his short-game came alive in a third-round 66 which earned him this chance, I could see him rolling with it. While I think Cauley is a point or so overpriced, there's clearly a scenario where both the front two struggle and Conners is among the most likely to take advantage.

Among the three-balls, SHANE LOWRY stands out as the most solid option.

He's with Beau Hossler and Hayden Springer and the former has been very ragged with his long-game, ranking last in strokes-gained approach so far. He made three late birdies to salvage his third round but still shot 77 and unless his ball-striking improves, these conditions look sure to expose him again.

Springer, who went without a birdie in round three, has putted pretty well but Lowry's exceptional iron play could be key. He ranks seventh in the field but 70th in putting, but his putter did behave itself on Saturday and that should set him up for a nice finish to a tournament in which he's produced plenty of low rounds.

Lowry doubled the 18th on Saturday but still outscored Hossler and Springer and at evens or bigger, with conditions to suit, he's a strong fancy.

This is Sawgrass though so rather than get stuck into the Irishman I'll add SI WOO KIM and JHONATTAN VEGAS for a small, 10/1 treble featuring players who are a long way down the leaderboard.

All three struggled yesterday but Kim is a former PLAYERS champion with a superior long-game, and with Pan having shown little this year, and Hoffman exposed once the wind whipped up, the Korean looks a solid proposition. You'd worry a little about the putter but two things are worth noting: one is that neither playing partner has putted well lately; the other is that in this wind, long-games tend to win.

Finally, Vegas looks well-drawn against players in Trey Mullinax and Cameron Young who shot 80 and 81 respectively yesterday.

Vegas only managed to shoot 79 himself but at 25th in the Saturday tee-to-green stats, he generally looked much more in control than Mullinax (58th) and Young (70th), the latter again struggling badly with his irons. Right now that's a big problem for him wherever he plays, but Sawgrass in the wind multiplies it. He's 61st for the week to Vegas's 18th and hopefully that proves a big clue.

Posted at 0815 GMT on 16/03/25

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