Richard Mann previews the World Test Championship final which will be played between Australia and South Africa at Lord's from Wednesday.
Cricket betting tips: Australia v South Africa
2pts Kagiso Rabada over 4.5 total match wickets at 4/5 at (bet365)
1pt Kagiso Rabada top South Africa first innings bowler at 23/10 (Unibet, BetMGM)
2pts Temba Bavuma top South Africa first innings batsman at 4/1 (General)
It’s been a pretty dull start to the English international summer, with Zimbabwe and the West Indies offering very little in the way of competition for their hosts, more a distinct lack of quality at the highest level.
The reasons as to why are for another day, but starting on Wednesday at Lord’s, we should get a Test match to savour as Australia and South Africa face off in the final of the ICC World Test Championship.
Australia are the current holders having defeated India at the Oval in the summer of 2023, and very little has changed with this team two years on. This remains a wonderful outfit with its core still very much intact.
Steve Smith continues to be the lynchpin of the batting at number four, no doubt brimming with confidence having compiled two centuries in last winter's 3-1 home series win over India, while there were also a couple of hundreds in that series for Travis Head.
It’s not all rosy in that batting group, however. With David Warner now retired, it will be interesting to see who gets the nod to partner the ageing Usman Khawaja at the top of the order, possibly Marnus Labuschagne whose steady decline means he is no longer the banker at number three he was once was.
Rabada can enhance strong Lord's record
If the ball does a bit when Australia bat, South African pace KAGISO RABADA will fancy opening up Labuschagne's right shoulder and bringing the slips into play with that venomous, late outswinger of his.
Make no mistake, Rabada, who has a fine record in England and an even better one against Australia, will be hard work with the Dukes ball. As will his partner in crime Marco Jansen.
Rabada has 49 wickets at an average of 23.08 against Australia thus far and he clearly enjoys bowling at Lord’s. In two previous Tests on this ground, Rababa has claimed 13 scalps at an average 19.38.
In a huge event such as this, in many ways a defining one for South African cricket after so many near misses in ICC events of the past, Rabada is sure to be keyed up and desperate to do well.
I’ll take RABADA TO BE TOP SOUTH AFRICA FIRST INNINGS BOWLER at 23/10, while those who get on with bet365 are advised to back RABADA TO TAKE OVER 4.5 WICKETS IN THE MATCH at 4/5.
Australia will start as strong favourites, and rightly so. This is a team that has continually found a way to churn out results away from home, if not be quite as dominant as a few of the great Australia sides of the past. At home, as always, they have been incredibly hard to break down.
The main reason for that is their quite outstanding bowling attack. The big four as they are known: Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon. Fit again and hot from winning this year’s IPL with Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Hazlewood is expected to displace Scott Boland in the starting XI.
That pace trio is outstanding and shows no sign of slowing down, but Lyon is key, holding down one end in the first innings while controlling the run rate, so the quicks can rest and rotate. It’s a potent combination.
Australia warm favourites to continue domination
Nevertheless, at 4/9, Australia make little appeal. The weather in England has been unsettled for a good week or so now, and with the forecast for this week for more of the same, this match could quite easily be decided by the toss, or who finds themselves batting in tricky conditions, potentially under lights with weather in the air. History tells us that Lord’s can be a very hard place to bat when that happens.
Another thing history tells us is that if we get some sunshine and clear skies, Lord’s generally produces pitches to last.
Despite losing heavily here last year, Sri Lanka still managed 292 in the fourth innings, England 327 the previous summer against Australia. Ireland scored 362 in the third innings on this ground just a few weeks earlier that summer.
Keep that in mind for any in-play bets, especially if, as is forecast at the time of writing, the weather gets better heading towards the weekend.
For now, I wouldn’t be too disparaging about South Africa’s chances. They are unbeaten in their last seven matches and as already alluded to, the Proteas have the tools in their bowling attack to really hurt Australia. If they opt to go with a frontline spinner, Keshav Maharaj is an excellent operator, while they have plenty of good seam options for these conditions.
The Proteas will need to bat well, though, much better than they did on their tour of England in 2022. But all the signs indicate they will, and they have a nice blend of old-style Test match batting in their top seven, mixed with a couple of dangerous strokemakers who can put opposition teams under pressure.
Much of the aggression will be brought by their opening pair of Ryan Rickelton and Aidan Markram. Rickelton has made quite the start to his international career, two centuries, one of them a double-hundred, from 10 Tests suggesting he is here to stay. Markram is vastly-experienced now, and though a mercurial character, he is a rich talent hot from a fruitful IPL season.
Bavuma the best bet for top batsman
And taking the attack to Australia’s attack might be the way to go. Better that than wait for a bullet with your name on it, some might reason. Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett took that approach in the last Ashes series and enjoyed their fair share of success, much more than other top orders having managed against this Australia team in recent times.
That should make for a fascinating watch, but be in no doubt that the glue to this South Africa batting line-up is captain TEMBA BAVUMA, who has enjoyed an impressive few years and continues to go from strength to strength.
In 2021, Bavuma averaged 53.60 in Test cricket, 40.07 in 2022 and 50.40 in 2023. In 2024, Bavuma averaged 55.88, with a hundred and four fifties in 10 Tests, while his sole Test match appearance this year saw him compile another century.
The 35-year-old has turned himself into a fabulous Test match batsman, with a strong all-round game that has managed to thrive in South African conditions that are in many ways similar to England – just with a little more pace and bounce for the bowlers.
His record against Australia is strong, with an average just above forty, and as I’ve said many times before, a spot in the middle order in England is often preferable. Bavuma is expected to bat at number four.
An unbeaten half-century in the warm-up game against Zimbabwe should have put the right-hander spot on for this week, and the general 4/1 for BAVUMA TO BE TOP SOUTH AFRICA FIRST INNINGS BATSMAN looks good value.
Preview published at 1330 BST on 09/06/25
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